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Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form. submitted by OhSoRefreshing to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later. Ok, listen up normies. Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you. I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on. CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell: I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags. This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS" Let's take a look at some of today's gainers: (changed tickers for automod avoidance) $USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason $SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day $TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly $OhGeeEye - lol $HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has. Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders. If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either. THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain: https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629 Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here. The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher. Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top. https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up. Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because... ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects.Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do. 200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads. What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later). But, this IS a casino after all... Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe. For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended. Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn. So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino. Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders. Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons: NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS. Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF - do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)* Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play. You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you. THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER. And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up? The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on. You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either. These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere. SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent.Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down. Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent. Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb. Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person. Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof: https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages. Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure. |
submitted by issayoshi to walmart [link] [comments] |
https://preview.redd.it/46mxukku9e731.jpg?width=696&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b682414c574db65230a10cd230edab05c4135c27 submitted by KostikBolin to u/KostikBolin [link] [comments] Пожалуй, в наше время ничто так не может отвлечь от мирских проблем, как развлечения в казино. Казино - это особенный мир, созданный человеком, но не имеющий аналогов, ведь люди так и не придумали ничего увлекательнее, что могло бы нравиться миллионам. Чтобы испытать прелесть азарта, Вам даже не нужно никуда ехать, в рунете сотни порталов, где можно поиграть в онлайн, лучший из них https://casinopinup.online Широкий ассортимент игр, минимальные депозиты, великолепные бонусы - все это ждет каждого игрока. Достойные выигрыши здесь не редкость, тут Вы можете заработать отличные деньги, чтобы убедиться в этом, читайте реальные отзывы на нашем ресурсе. Мы уверены, что площадка приятно порадует даже самого опытного игрока, мы собрали лишь самый актуальный ассортимент игр, где можно найти любой вариант по нраву, например https://casinopinup.online/p/stavki-na-sport-v-pin-up-bet-mobilnaya-versiya/ . Наш ресурс подарит Вам прекрасное настроение, множество бонусов и возможность достойного выигрыша. |
DTE | Strike | Premium | ARP | Delta | Gamma | IV | OpenInt |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
41 | 375$ | 5.87$ | 13.59% | ~0.3 | 0.012 | 22% | 37920 |
6 | 380$ | 0.81$ | 12.96% | ~0.18 | 0.030 | 15% | 15550 |
6 | 381$ | 0.925$ | 14.76% | ~0.20 | 0.034 | 15% | 4593 |
349 | 430$ | 56.895$ | 13.83% | ~0.65 | 0.005 | 34% | <100 |
DTE | Strike | Premium | ARP | Delta | Gamma | IV | OpenInt |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
41 | 130$ | 3.60$ | 24.65% | ~0.3 | 0.007 | 33% | <100 |
6 | 132$ | 0.425$ | 19.59% | ~0.16 | 0.048 | 26% | 3280 |
6 | 133$ | 0.595$ | 26.99% | ~0.21 | 0.059 | 26% | 4200 |
349 | 165$ | 38.20$ | 24.21% | ~0.61 | 0.007 | 39% | <300 |
DTE | Strike | Premium | ARP | Delta | Gamma | IV | OpenInt |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
41 | 47.5$ | 0.93$ | 17.43% | ~0.3 | 0.076 | 27% | 8193 |
6 | 46.0$ | 0.085$ | 11.24% | ~0.07 | 0.052 | 39% | 2659 |
6 | 46.5$ | 0.11$ | 19.59% | ~0.09 | 0.066 | 36% | 1130 |
349 | 55$ | 8.80$ | 16.73% | ~0.61 | 0.029 | 26% | 3894 |
DTE | Strike | Premium | ARP | Delta | Gamma | IV | OpenInt |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
41 | 65$ | 27.15$ | 371.84% | ~0.296 | 0.005 | 326% | 600 |
6 | 24$ | 3.125$ | 372.60% | ~0.034 | 0.001 | 470% | 734 |
i'm sure Hitler was saying the same thingSounds real definitive. You bet he said it? Or you hate the Jews enough that you're willing to make up some fake Hitler shit to pin it on the Jews? You're a bigot.
Ticker | Comments | Bullish % |
---|---|---|
GME - Gamestop Corpor... | 11,327 | 86% |
BB - BlackBerry Ltd | 4,165 | 91% |
TSLA - Tesla Inc | 3,461 | 79% |
PLTR - Palantir Techno... | 2,672 | 86% |
AAPL - Apple Inc | 2,547 | 90% |
ICLN - BlackRock Insti... | 1,705 | 91% |
AMD - Advanced Micro ... | 1,590 | 86% |
BABA - Alibaba Group H... | 1,228 | 80% |
AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.... | 1,062 | 84% |
PLUG - Plug Power Inc | 952 | 91% |
F - Ford Motor Co. | 866 | 85% |
NFLX - NetFlix Inc | 841 | 86% |
NIO - NIO Inc - ADR | 752 | 92% |
FB - Facebook Inc - ... | 740 | 87% |
INTC - Intel Corp. | 740 | 61% |
TLRY - Tilray Inc - Cl... | 707 | 68% |
WISH - ContextLogic In... | 581 | 71% |
APHA - Aphria Inc | 512 | 93% |
NOK - Nokia Corp - AD... | 509 | 97% |
CRSR - Corsair Gaming ... | 442 | 91% |
AMC - AMC Entertainme... | 394 | 92% |
MSFT - Microsoft Corpo... | 348 | 88% |
GLD - SSgA Active Tru... | 342 | 72% |
ARKG - ARK Investment ... | 325 | 93% |
ARKK - ARK Investment ... | 309 | 94% |
1. Dow set to add to Wednesday’s record high close
- Dow futures rose Thursday, one day after the 30-stock average hit an intraday all-time high in a volatile session and closed at a record. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wednesday were unable to hold on to their all-time intraday highs and closed slightly lower.
- The Labor Department is out at 8:30 a.m. ET with its weekly report on new jobless claims. Economists expect 760,000 filings for new unemployment benefits for last week. That would be down 19,000 from the prior week, which at 779,000 was the lowest initial claims reading since late November.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday monetary policy needs to stay “patiently accommodative” to support the economy that still faces challenges in the labor market. The employment picture is “a long way” from where it needs to be, the central bank chief told the Economic Club of New York.
2. PepsiCo beats expectations; Uber delivers mixed results
- Earnings were once again a focus for investors. Disney leads the list of major companies reporting quarterly results after Thursday’s closing bell. Before the market opening, PepsiCo reported a fourth-quarter profit of $1.47 per share, a penny better than estimates. Revenue rose 8.8% to $22.46 billion, also exceeding expectations. PepsiCo shares fell slightly in the premarket.
- Uber shares dropped 4% in Thursday’s premarket, the morning after the company reported a smaller-than-expected loss of 54 cents per share in the fourth quarter. However, revenue fell 16% to a lower-than-expected $3.17 billion. Uber’s ride-hailing business slowly recovered, while its delivery business boomed.
3. Cannabis stocks jump in a Reddit-fueled trade reminiscent of GameStop
- Cannabis stocks were soaring as the Reddit crowd that spiked GameStop jumped in. Tilray shares surged nearly 51% on Wednesday, pushing the stock to a year-to-date gain of more than 670%. Not nearly as bet-against as GameStop, Tilray’s short interest was still equal to 22.5% of the shares available for trading, according to FactSet as of the end of January. Tilary added another 10% in Thursday’s premarket. Tilray is no stranger to a short-squeeze rally. The stock spiked more than 1,400% between July and September 2018, but those gains did not last.
4. Dating app firm Bumble set to begin trading after pricing IPO
- When 31-year-old Bumble CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd takes her dating app company public Thursday, she’ll be noted not only for her youth but also as one of the few female founders to lead her firm to an IPO. Bumble, whose board comprises 73% women, priced its offering Wednesday evening at $43 per share, raising $2.2 billion and valuing Bumble at around $8 billion. The stock market response will act as a litmus test for companies founded by women, who account for just 7.4% of Fortune 500 CEOs. That’s an all-time high but still a staggeringly low.
PepsiCo (PEP) – The beverage and snack giant beat estimates by a penny with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.47 per share, and revenue was above estimates as well. The company said it expects to see organic revenue and adjusted profit growth this year, and also announced a 5% dividend increase.
STOCK SYMBOL: PEP
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Generac (GNRC) – Generac shares rose 3% in pre-market trading after the maker of backup generators beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter, and said it expected net sales growth of 25 to 30 percent this year.
STOCK SYMBOL: GNRC
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Restaurant Brands (QSR) – The parent of Popeyes, Burger King and Tim Hortons missed estimates by 12 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 53 cents per share, while revenue was slightly above forecasts. Shares fell about 2% pre-market as comparable restaurant sales fell more than expected.
STOCK SYMBOL: QSR
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Tempur Sealy (TPX) – Shares of the mattress maker surged 12% pre-market after it beat forecasts by 15 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 67 cents per share. Revenue beat estimates as well, and Tempur Sealy said it expected 2021 sales growth of 15% to 20%.
STOCK SYMBOL: TPX
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LabCorp (LH) – The medical-laboratory operator reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $10.56 per share, well above the $8.11 consensus estimate, and revenue was above forecasts as well. Its results were boosted by Covid-19 testing, and shares were up 3.6% pre-market.
STOCK SYMBOL: LH
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Molson Coors (TAP) – The beer brewer’s shares were down 4.5 % pre-market as it reported adjusted quarterly earnings of 40 cents per share, well below the 77-cent consensus estimate. Its results were hurt by ongoing Covid-19 restrictions for restaurants and bars.
STOCK SYMBOL: TAP
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Kraft Heinz (KHC) – Kraft Heinz shares rose 1.7% pre-market, as it beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter, and also announced the sale of its Planters snacks business to Hormel (HRL) for $3.35 billion in cash.
STOCK SYMBOL: KHC
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Uber Technologies (UBER) – Uber reported a quarterly loss of 54 cents per share, 2 cents less than anticipated, with revenue slightly below estimates. Uber’s results were helped by an expansion in its food delivery business as well as cost reductions. Uber shares were down 3.8% pre-market.
STOCK SYMBOL: UBER
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Bumble (BMBL) – Bumble makes its Wall Street debut today after pricing its initial public offering at $43 per share, above the already raised expected range of $37 to $39 per share. The dating service raised $2.2 billion in the IPO, giving it an overall value of more than $7 billion.
STOCK SYMBOL: BMBL
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Sonos (SONO) – Sonos shares jumped 17% in pre-market trading, after the maker of high-end smart speakers beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines in its latest quarter. Sonos was helped by stronger margins as no promotions were held during the quarter. It also raised its full-year revenue guidance.
STOCK SYMBOL: SONO
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iRobot (IRBT) – iRobot earned an adjusted 84 cents per share for the fourth quarter, well above the consensus estimate of 84 cents, with revenue also comfortably topping Wall Street predictions. The maker of the Roomba robotic vacuum cleaner also gave strong full-year revenue and profit guidance. Shares rose 7.3% in pre-market trading.
STOCK SYMBOL: IRBT
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Zillow Group (ZG) – Zillow beat estimates by 14 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of 41 cents per share, with the operator of real estate websites also scoring a revenue beat. It also gave upbeat revenue guidance, and announced the acquisition of online home-viewing-scheduling platform ShowingTime.com for $500 million in cash. Zillow shares rose 12% in pre-market trading.
STOCK SYMBOL: ZG
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Zynga (ZNGA) - Zynga CEO Frank Gibeau told Barron’s that the mobile game developer is open to an acquisition offer, although it is not actively looking to sell the company. Zynga also reported a 61% jump in the key metric of net bookings during its latest quarter, more than analysts had anticipated.
STOCK SYMBOL: ZNGA
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XPO Logistics (XPO) – XPO earned an adjusted $1.19 per share for the fourth quarter, well above the 67-cent consensus estimate. The logistics company also saw revenue above forecasts and gave strong full-year earnings guidance. XPO is benefiting from a pandemic-induced acceleration in shipping activity due to an explosion in online shopping.
STOCK SYMBOL: XPO
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Merck (MRK) - Merck is in talks with both governments and other drugmakers to help produce already approved Covid-19 vaccines. The drugmaker did not specify which governments or other companies were involved in those talks.
STOCK SYMBOL: MRK
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Pinterest (PINS) – Pinterest was approached by Microsoft (MSFT) about a possible takeover in recent months, according to people brief on the matter who spoke to the Financial Times. However, the report added that negotiations about a buyout of the image-sharing company were not currently active.
STOCK SYMBOL: PINS
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