In today's edition of DDDD (Data-Driven DD), we’ll be going over over the details about what happened this week with GME, the drama around Robinhood and other brokers, and take a close look at some data to determine whether or not GME and other various meme / high SI stocks such as AMC, BBBY, FIZZ, LGND, and submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion and for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up and with some satire thrown in. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. What Exactly Happened at Robinhood This Week?There has been plenty of speculation this week about what exactly went down and unverified (although reasonable) rumors on why Robinhood did this. I’ll go over the top two theories before taking a deep dive into the “official” reason given by Robinhood.Pressure from the White House and Sequoia according to a Robinhood employee This statement has been refuted by Sequoia. I personally wouldn’t believe the Sequoia part since I don’t really know what they would gain from it - they’re a Venture Capital firm, not a hedge fund, and would not be actively shorting stocks let alone be trading in stocks. It could be possible that the White House, or someone from the government did contact Robinhood - actually, I’d be pretty shocked if no one called them at some point this week to ask wtf was going on.During this call, they may have been afraid that GameStop’s short squeeze would have triggered a major financial crisis due to hedge funds collapsing and de-grossing, causing a mass selloff similar to what was seen in 2008 and in March 2020 - I’ll talk more about this later. Basically, without Robinhood shutting down GME from being bought, it’s actually very possible we would have seen the rest of the stock market collapse last week, and this was something the Biden administration was trying to make sure didn’t happen in the first month in office. Possible intervention from Citadel Securities This was a theory I personally believed in initially and would have been a very obvious area of scrutiny for many people. The most straightforward one being the fact that Citadel (the hedge fund) dumped a few billion into Melvin to bail it out a few days ago, who were the very well known shorts of GME. Citadel, the hedge fund, is owned by Citadel LLC, which happens to also run Citadel Securities - a market maker. If you don’t know what this is, go grow a few brain wrinkles and read my previous post about this. Citadel Securities is effectively Robinhood’s sugar daddy, directly being responsible for around 40% of their revenue in 2018 through their payment for order flow (i.e. selling your trades to Citadel, giving them the right of first refusal, and potentially giving you a worse price; this is how they get 0% commission trades btw). Theoretically, Citadel the hedge fund and Citadel the market maker is run independently and sister companies both owned by Citadel LLC, but anyone can see this being a potential conflict of interest. There’s also a possibility that Citadel Securities losing billions of dollars being short so many GME calls (they write 99% of all options contracts) and probably not being perfectly Gamma and (especially) Vega hedged, so when those two greeks skyrocketed on GME they probably lost tons of money there. According to WSB hero Chamath, he didn’t invest in Robinhood when they came to him on multiple occasions because he thought the founders lacked integrity, implying he believes they might have been the type of people to sell out their users (granted, they already literally do this) and do this type of shit. The Official Reason - Clearing House Limitations Let’s get to the official reason put out by Robinhood, which is that their clearing house, in this case the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp, suddenly increased their collateral requirements on GME trades drastically. Apparently, Robinhood is running out of cash, so they weren’t able to provide the cash collateral demanded by DTCC, and hence weren’t able to trade through them. Let’s dumb this down and talk about how brokerages work. Let’s talk about what a clearing house is and how they work. Imagine Bob wants to sell Dylan a share of GME. There’s a bunch of legal paperwork and logistics for actually transferring over the share, which can take a few days to finalize - this is called settlement. However, you don’t want people being able to back out of this exchange during this process for obvious reasons, so that’s where the clearing house comes in. Let’s call this clearing house Mary. What Mary does is facilitate (clear) this exchange, and ensures both Bob and Dylan follow through with their trade by having them both immediately give Mary cash as collateral while the exchange settles. If one party was no longer able to meet their end of the exchange (eg. Dylan goes bankrupt), Mary acts as an insurer and is responsible for buying the share from Bob instead. If it turned out that Bob was lying about actually owning a share and can't transfer it over to Dylan in time (failure to deliver), Mary is responsible for finding that share for him instead. Since GME suddenly became very volatile, and the financial soundness of some parties and their ability to deliver their side of the trade have been suddenly called into question (at least on the seller’s side), DTCC decided (...or due to pressure from other sources?) to increase the collateral needed for buying GME to be more than 10x of the proportion of the market value of whatever it was before. Most brokerages reacted to this by disabling margin trading. For some reason, Robinhood went one step further and disabled trading for all accounts, possibly due to their relatively small cash reserves compared to places like Fidelity, and the relatively large number of users who use margin in the platform. What’s Robinhood Going To Do About GME?Robinhood’s decision to stop purchases of GME basically got hate from literally everyone, to the point where it somehow united the country in a beautiful way. Here’s a list of things that happened as a result of Robinhood’s decision, for fun
The people in charge of Robinhood likely know all of this and are doing everything they can to find cash and liquidity to put up the collateral needed to resume GME trading. So far we’ve seen them raise $1B from investors and $500M through lines of credit overnight, although based on the fact that GME is still restricted, that doesn’t seem to be enough. However, in my personal opinion, I think it's likely that Robinhood is doing everything they can to find more money given the situation, and once they do, they will likely re-enable trading on GME. If that happens (which IMO will probably be some time next week), GME and all other high-SI stocks will absolutely 🚀🌝**.** How GME Almost Caused (and Still Can Cause) a Stock Market CrashLet’s go over something else interesting that went on as a result of the GME short squeeze - the fact that it started to affect the stock market overall. In fact, the stock market had the largest decline since October across all sectors on Wednesday when GME, AMC, and other high-SI stocks surged, with a very sharp recovery as the meme stocks fell after Robinhood suspending purchases; this was one of the biggest de-grossing of hedge funds in history. Chamath wrote a great Twitter thread about this, so amazing that I’ll just copy-paste his tweets rather than try to explain it better myself.A children's book explanation of what's happening:Hedge fund grossing / de-grossing In other words, as stocks like GME go up, the highly-leveraged hedge funds that are shorting these stocks are forced to sell their longs as they cover their shorts. Most retail investors are limited to 2x leverage, but since hedge funds are “hedged” by taking short and long positions, they can be up to 30x levered since theoretically they would be shielded from external events that cause all stocks to go up or down in price (i.e. Beta neutral), so they’re “safer”. To get out of these short positions, they will need to massively unwind their long positions as well so they can still have a reasonable “Net Exposure”, triggering a sell-off in those stocks. A very similar thing actually happened in March (with risk-parity) causing hedge funds to similarly massively de-gross, and literally everything from GLD to even AMZN’s stock price dropping as a result, even though theoretically COVID-19 would’ve been good for both from a fundamental basis, as we saw later on. It’s very likely that if Robinhood hadn’t stopped purchases of GME, many more hedge funds shorts would have had their shorts blow up and be forced to continue to de-gross causing a widespread stock market crash, potentially being the catalyst for finally popping the decade-long liquidity (leverage)-fueled asset bubble we’ve been experiencing. In fact, this could still happen since it doesn’t look like hedge funds have learned their lesson and are still heavily short GME with Net Shares Shorts barely moving this week according to S3 Partners. Furthermore, despite seeing the largest de-grossing of hedge funds since 2009, gross exposure (aka leverage) of hedge funds still remains close to record-high levels. TLDR In case your attention span was too short to read everything above,
Or in other words, I like these stocks. EDIT - Appearently S3 Partners just contradicted their tweet on Friday and now indicate that shares short of GME have dipped below 30M shares. Still highly shorted compared to most other stocks, fwiw. EDIT2 - Getting alot of questions on how one short position in a small cap can do this, and my answer is that GME alone wouldn't cause a financial crisis, but rather what GME represents, which is disproving that hedge funds that a long / short strategy (i.e. taking out additional leverage to short similar companies they long) is unviable; The word from my hedge fund friends is that this type of thing would have been considered a six-sigma event, or one in a billion chance of happening; which is obviously no longer true. Hedge funds seeing Melvin go down will probably start re-consider their short books. This on mass will cause a mass short-covering and also sell-off of their longs. Hedge funds levering up using cheap money has been the basis of the stock market's rise the past year - how do you think money magically goes from Powell's money printer to the stock market? |
Hello fellow retards submitted by PutsOnYourWife to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] I know these are difficult times for this sub and it’s almost impossible to post something solid which is not about the current meme stocks. Instead of jerking to some porn i did some research on PLTR and want to share my DD with you. This might be a longer text for your love dopamine level so maybe you should grab some your Adderall before. The following text might you give your eyes aids since English isn’t my native language. I will try my best. Palantir as a Company – the beginnings PLTR was founded by some people and one of them is Peter Thiel who worked alongside with our holy papa Elon at PayPal. As a payment-service they had concerns about money laundering and founded PLTR to tackle this issue early. The CIA also funded PLTR (they are always funding stuff like this – Siri as example). This actually might be the reason why people think that PLTR is a company which aggregates data and do data analysis for the government….but this is not accurate and not correct at all if you see the big picture. I will explain this point later. You retard still reading? Nice here some rocket emoji’s to pump your dopamine and keep you happy. 🚀🚀🚀 Let’s start with the DD First of all my POV is looking for a midterm to long term investment in PLTR. My valuation considers PLTRs current state and predicting from now on for the next few years.
PLTR basically offers systems to big companies/governments which import their data into these systems. PLTR doesn’t sends workers to the client to collect data and analyse it. They sell platforms. They got 2 Products called “Gotham” and “Foundry” You may think wtf is this guy talking about? Let me explain it in 2 examples: First example is Syria with Gotham. It was impossible in the country to know who the good guys are and who the bad ones are. I know u muricans only know yourself and the rest of the world is the “rest of the world” for you. But this wasn’t so simple in Syria you had many factions with different intentions and some of them were allies and some of them were enemies. The lack of information or the ability of recognizing and sorting these information’s are crucial in a war. PLTR solved the struggle with creating a map which provided resilient information for the marines so they can operate safely. Civil problems over there could also be fixed. https://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/04/palantir-using-big-data-to-solve-big-humanitarian-crises/ Actually what the John Hopkins University does with the covid numbers and the map, is some sort of what PLTR offering with their solutions. There are rumors that the tracking of Covid and the vaccination will be done by PLTR. In their S1 Form PLTR describes it this way “Gotham, our first software platform, was constructed for analysts at defense and intelligence agencies. They were hunting for needles not in one, but in thousands of haystacks. And they did not have the software they needed to do their jobs. In Afghanistan and Iraq, soldiers were mapping networks of insurgents and makers of roadside bombs by hand. Gotham enables users to identify patterns hidden deep within datasets, ranging from signals intelligence sources to reports from confidential informants, and helps U.S. and allied military personnel find what they are looking for.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm#rom904406_11 The second example is about “Foundry” and it’s directly from the S1 File of PLTR (page 121) “An Airbus A350, for example, has five million parts and is built by hundreds of teams that are spread across four countries and more than eight factories. Companies routinely struggle to manage let alone make sense of the data involved in large projects. Foundry was built for them. The platform transforms the ways in which organizations interact with information by creating a central operating system for their data.” Both of these systems solving big issues with less effort. The arms industry as example would took billions for drones and stuff in Syria for the same job. The important fact is that PLTR does not spend so much resources for new clients they only have to provide access and support for their services and the client feeding the “machine” with data. The key point is to understand that PLTR benefits very huge from economy of scales. This is very important since their costs for additional revenue is basically flat while the profits growing exorbitant with new customers. They offer a software and platforms and not kind of services where they need man power. All they do is working on their platforms and improving it. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palantir-ipo-breakingviews-idUSKCN26E3I2
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/peter-thiel-bet-donald-trump-wins-big.html But this didn’t happened. Peter got cucked by the huge authority apparatus in pentagon. These dudes loves bureaucracy and they do it for a good reason. If you retire from your job in pentagon you usually get a high paid luxurious position at Lockheed, Raytheon or Bae Systems to make additional free money for your retirement. Many thousand people working in pentagon just to select and buy stuff for the government. They spending billions of dollars for purchases and then PLTR came around and said like „look guys we can do this job for a few millions instead billions“. Of course the arms industry was pissed and the pentagon boomers helped them out. PLTR got constantly scammed from boomers and didn’t get the contracts. This was also the „swamp „trump was talking about. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-28/inside-palantir-s-war-with-the-u-s-army https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2017/03/27/palantir-trump-army-military-procurement.html A fun fact to this matter: Before James Mattis got summoned as the Defense Secretary of the USA he was a general in Afghanistan. He ordered services from PLTR despite the fact the pentagon was against it. But the marines praised PLTRs software and valued it over the trash they used to know from the defense/arms industry. Processing img 2os8izwwe4h61... https://www.military.com/defensetech/2013/07/01/special-forces-marines-embrace-palantir-software Even with a James Mattis as the defense secretary, trump as president and regardless that PLTR does it better and cheaper than the arms industry, it wasn’t possible for PLTR to get the government contracts. https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/11/palantir-defense-jim-mattis-inner-circle-239373 https://fortune.com/longform/palantir-pentagon-trump/ How it’s ended? Well Peter’s wife doesn’t have a boyfriend because Peter is the fucking boyfriend of their wifes. All ended at the court and PLTR won. All this injustice ended at the court. The judgements on these cases are true circuit breakers for PLTR. Not only because PLTR spent shit tons of money for law suits. The lawsuits were perfect uppercut hits on the arms industry and they ended some fraudulent behaviors and „best practices „in the government https://www.defensenews.com/land/2016/10/31/judge-rules-in-favor-of-palantir-in-lawsuit-against-us-army/ https://www.defensenews.com/land/2019/03/29/palantir-who-successfully-sued-the-army-just-won-a-major-army-contract/ PLTR will profit from a Biden who wants to decrease the military expenditures. They will get the job done and at the same time the costs will go down. With the recent judgements the door looks open.
Let’s talk about the market. The whole market seems overpriced but it isn’t tbh. Due to the low cost of capital there is no alternative than to throwing your money on stocks or on real estate. There is nothing with a solid interest rate around (not even in emerging markets). At the stock exchange like in 70s, the companies had to offer a return, a perspective which should be more attractive as putting your money on a saving account with 8% interests without risks. These times are gone since the 2000s. So before people discuss insane valuation they should check out the fiscal and economical policies. Now back to PLTR and why the price is difficult to set (cheap imo). First of all PLTR did a direct listing without an investment bank for their share offerings. Its lacking of the valuation which they usually would get through such a process. PLTR wanted to do IPO with Morgan Stanley but it was mess. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/morgan-stanley-s-long-romance-of-palantir-pays-off-as-ipo-nears Morgan Stanley proved themselves many times as stubborn communists when it comes to valuations. I mean you guys remember their disgusting price targets for tesla like 100$ post split or stuff like that. These guys are very focused on numbers and I know it’s difficult to price in the potential and perspectives. But you can’t ignore these things for a fundamental valuation. If you want to consider these things in the price you have to understand the business of the company. This ended that one team at Morgan Stanley valuated PLTR with 5 billion while another team thought they worth 40 billion. https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2018/11/14/palantir-ipo-valuation-morgan-stanley.html How is this difference possible and why is this happening? Because people don’t understand what they are valuating. This happened a lot in the last decade because the decision makers in these banks and many analyst don’t have any idea which metrics they should use on companies like that. They are using the metrics from classical industries on new business. They freaked out when Facebook was valued with 100 billion as IPO. Same with Twitter and in the last years it was Tesla. They said apple going to tank every damn year in the last decade. I honor Warren Buffet so much since he has the dignity to realize that he don’t understands something but at the same time he sees the potential and the trend. That’s why he hired 2 Chads who bought Snowflake for him. The transformation and the generation change didn’t happened yet. That’s why they try to use the metrics from Caterpillar on Tesla. Guys the whole market is mooning with the cheap liquidity. Pennystocks and zombie companies transforming into billion dollar market cap companies. Facebook as IPO had a market cap of 104 billion back in 2012. At that time it wasn’t possible for Facebook to monetize their users with selling ads. They just paid 100 billion for the potential in more difficult market conditions. Look at the IPOs like doordash, Bumble. I’m not going to call this a bubble. Just check out their business cases and use the metrics. Maybe its easier for people to understand Bumble and Doordash… On page 12 of the S1 (balance sheet) Form you can already see the huge positive trends in PLTRs revenue and their costs. All this without all the positive events and contracts PLTR recently got. PLTRs valuation is difficult and I think it’s miscalculated by pessimistic communist who don’t understand that their products are game changers for industries, governments and defense forces. Because of these points I think there is huge price potential for PLTR
As PLTR competitor people use to mention IBM. The boomers from IBM already surrendered with their Windows95 computers and decided to cooperate. The biggest threat would be big tech with big money like AMZN or APPL. You all now the stories about APPL and Spotify or AMZN and all the merchants. Even if the big players would step into PLTR markets it would be difficult for them since PLTRs products doesn’t rely on an Amazon store or on apple devices. PLTR is years ahead with their products. I think the greatest risk (still) are the boomerish arms industry and all the boomers in pentagon and other authorities. There are very corrupt infrastructures when it comes to decision making and assigning contracts. People fear changes but they can’t avoid the changes. With the recent judgements we can see a turn on the tables but the transformation will still take time. It’s a circuit breaker with an avalanche effect. The risk factors on page 16 on the S1 form mostly aren’t relevant anymore. People complained that PLTR wasn’t profitable for 18 years. Well PLTR was never designed to be profitable and Alex Karp once said “love us or leave us alone”. https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/09/09/palantir-ceo-makes-livestreamed-pitch-to-investors.html But even this changed recently. PLTR became profitable in 2020 with 130,000,000§. Now the same people complaining about how high the stock price compared to the profits. Well just you wait.
https://preview.redd.it/qqcv8vzee4h61.jpg?width=744&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=98d264f091b7ff80926038660f43c57b87fc8ef2 https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-military-expenditure-sees-largest-annual-increase-decade-says-sipri-reaching-1917-billion With Bidens presidency we will see more disruptive technologies chosen by the government. Biden want to reduce the military expenditures. PLTR is able to provide better service for lower cost. Not only the recent judgements also the political change will help PLTR. Ironic if you remember that Peter supported Trump and getting his tendies from Biden.
“The systemic failures of government institutions to provide for the public — fractured healthcare systems, erosions of data privacy, strained criminal justice systems, and outmoded ways of fighting wars — will continue to require both the public and private sectors to transform themselves. We believe that the underperformance and loss of legitimacy of many of these institutions will only increase the speed with which they are required to change.”
A remember the recent examples? Bumble?! Bruuuh. Don’t get me wrong if you invested in Bumble but they have nothing special to offer and their business case can easily copied or improved by others. Its shows the current state of our market with the crazy liquidity that even zombie companies got astronomic valuations. Use these metrics on PLTR with great products, great management, low cost base and less odds as ever before…. PLTR price is wrong imo especially in this market and with PLTRs current state and perspective.
If all these information would priced in correctly we would have a share price of at least 60-70$. With upcoming and ongoing positive events PLTR share price should soar more.. What’s next? Now we have earnings ahead and the lock up period ending. For the earnings I think the number will be fine and keep up the positive trend on revenue with a disproportionately trend of the costs. The most important part will be guidance for 2021. We should listen closely and see if the magic is already happening. The second event is the ending of the lock up period. You all remember the end of the lock up period of Nikola? Just 1-2 days after they announced they don’t got the GM deal? The stock tanked – for a good reason. You know the guy Trevor Milton. But in PLTRs case everything is different. Despite the successful deals they got, does a guy who says “love us or leave us alone” sounds like someone who going to drop his shares at the first possibility? I don’t expect such a behavior from Alex Karp and neither from Peter Thiel. If some employees drop their shares it should be fine. I would appreciate if the stock prices would go below 3ß. It would create a healthy bullish chart pattern and would be actually a nice discount to get in or stock up. I don’t think that the shares going to dump a lot because of this event. The earnings and the guidance are more important and the key events if you want to invest mid – long term. What does all this means for you? Nothing! Please don’t do any market activity based on my DD. I’m just sharing my knowledge and looking for critics so I can reevaluate my theses. This is not a financial advice. My hearts bleeding for all the GME holders. My last Reddit account got banned because I criticized “the pumpers”. In one of the comments I called the mods gay and got banned permanently (bye bye 20 k karma). If you are new to this please don’t do any decision based on this so I can sleep gladly. I’m not well positioned and not trying to pump this stock. I have 70 shares and a CSP. Fair play and fuck all the bots and pump and dumper we recently got in the sub! Leave an upvote if this post helped you. I need some more karma to be able to shitpost everywhere again! |
So, the day has come, and MicroVision's market cap is finally big enough so that you won't get banned for mentioning it on WSB. But what is it? Why have they seen an 800%+ increase in three months? Where are they headed? Allow me to explain. submitted by BigBlackWifey to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] About Them MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS) makes futuristic-as-fuck laser technology that's used in self driving cars and augmented reality headsets. This already sets them apart from a major competitors like Velodyne (VLDR), which focuses solely on LiDAR for self driving cars. Sumit Sharma, the CEO, was head of operations at Google's Project GLASS and has worked to map hardware development at Motorola, also worked at Jawbone. Source Why have they been increasing 800% in three months while similar companies in the same sector see a fraction of that gain? Because their tech is much more advanced than the competition, and they were (are) criminally undervalued. The reason they're so undervalued is because the first thing hedge funds see when they research a potential investment is the balance sheet, and on paper MVIS looks like shit. (Low assets, high liabilities) Even I saw the movement back in December, did some research, and was like "Wtf is this? I need to get puts" But once you do research into their product, who their customers are, and the future of the industry that they are involved in, you see that MicroVision is a turnaround story similar to that of Plug Power; both are 90's futuristic companies that people got way too excited about in 2000, have struggled to make it to 2020, but now are about to finally have their heyday. And they got a $13 million equity facility (loan) in December that greatly improved their balance sheet, making them appeal to institutions, and bringing Vanguard and Blackrock to invest in MVIS days later. I actually had a hedge fund manager tell me that MVIS was doomed to run out of cash in Q1 2020, but if they secured funds then they would have a lot of potential. I go over that in the comments. MVIS (left) vs PLUG (right) 1990's until present Anyways, what is this "much more advanced" technology? I'll just let this chart do the talking: The MicroVision Consumer LIDAR being compared here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars, that will be coming in April. The resolution it can take as input/second, the points per second, is key when it comes to how clearly the LiDAR sensor can see, how accurately it can identify what it is seeing, and how quickly it can react. That chart is from 2 years ago and still the best resolution Velodyne can provide today is only 4,800,000 pps in their most advanced model, the "Alpha Prime" 3D Lidar Data Points Generated 2- Single Return Mode: ~ 2,400,000 points per second- Dual Return Mode: ~ 4,800,000 points per second.VLDR has not publicly announced a price for their Alpha Prime yet, but historically their top of the line devices cost $75,000. I have seen unsourced numbers of the Alpha Prime costing $100,000. That was last year, will probably be brought down to be more reasonable for automakers to purchase. They did announce a $500 model called the Velarray H800 in November, but the only thing they said about its pps resolution is that its "outstanding"... lol. As for Luminar (LAZR), they will launch the new model "Iris" in 2022, which will cost about $1,000: (the same price as MicroVision's device to be revealed in April). It will also only operate at 10Hz. This is similar to playing a racing game at 10FPS. If you know anything about video games, you know that this is unplayable. Iris will cost less than $1,000 per unit for production vehicles seeking serious autonomy, and for $500 you can get a more limited version for more limited purposes like driver assistance, or ADAS. Luminar says Iris is 'slated to launch commercially on production vehicles beginning in 2022,' but that doesn't mean necessarily that it's shipping to customers right now. The company is negotiating more than a billion dollars in contracts at present, a representative told me, and 2022 would be the earliest that vehicles with Iris could be made available.A lengthy post has been make comparing Luminar's resolutions with MicroVision's, which was not easy to calculate because Luminar said their resolution was "300dpi/spdeg", a statistic that is incomprehensible for shareholders because its not the common specification of millions (3D) points per second. Here's the math, I sum it all up at the bottom: Luminar's Hydra claims resolution of "up to 200 points per square degree" and a FOV of 120° x 30° (degrees). (and 300 points for Iris, the one coming in 2022.)TLDR: The best case scenario for Luminar is that their 2022 model will have 10.8 million pps, but in reality its probably much lower than that because of FOV configurations, careful wording by press releases, and Hz limitations. Additional Interesting insight on Luminar and their tech lagging behind is in the comments, this post is long enough already. Again the MicroVision Consumer LIDAR (specifications) being used for comparison here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars. Their device specialized for cars, the "1st gen Long Range LiDAR (LRL) Sensor", will be coming in April. We expect our 1st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equates to 520 points per square degree.(For those who read the math on LAZR, notice he doesn't say up to) It testing is successful, the 1st Generation LRL Sensor will be able to calculate velocity of objects relative to itself, and be able to be used in Level 3 and Level 4 self-driving applications Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.What is Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving? https://preview.redd.it/n4c8831l9dh61.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=0652984c72da3159b53a4fc4058c9d9e33cc6b05 Level 1 is feet off, level 2 is hands off, level 3 is eyes off, level 4 is mind off, and level 5 is full passenger (you can sit in the back). So basically, they have that 2045 technology today, while everyone else is trying to play catch-up. How is it so advanced? It all lies in the high resolution of the laser sensors. I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features.If their devices can really recognize people, objects, and pets, it could integrate security verticals in MicroVision's business model. (Video surveillance is expected to reach a 144.5 B market size by 2027) Why not just use cameras? Cameras are worse at long distances, LiDAR is the only sensor that gives you resolution at range: the ability to get very fine and very accurate detection of objects in space.that's why Teslas use radar systems in addition to their cameras, still not good enough to prevent fatalities on the road using Tesla's "full self-driving" software. Also, cameras struggle with light glare, weather, and 3D imaging, while LiDAR fixes all those issues. The main advantage of cameras are their resolution, and MicroVision is bridging the gap. So, will testing be successful? We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. (Same source)This product has been getting fine tuned for years and I am personally confident that they will be able to outperform in their testing. Demonstration(YT links aren't allowed apparently) of their consumer LiDAR product from 2018 (make sure your quality is all the way up). Growing Industry The self-driving cars market is expected to reach 220.44 billion dollars by 2025. This includes taxi, civil, public transport, heavy duty trucks, ride shares, and ride hail (UBER - 72 B mkt cap) applications. Traffic Accidents in the US alone Cost 871 Billion A Year, even just yesterday there was an insane pileup on the I-35W highway in Texas that killed 6, injured 36, and damaged 133 vehicles. Not only self-driven cars need LiDAR. In a few years, as soon as MicroVision's 1st Gen LRL is available, LiDAR systems will certainly become mandatory for (still) human-controlled cars to avoid collisions. This tech could become as revolutionary and successful as airbags. Airbags are a 37.3 billion dollar industry. If only 10% of the cars produced annually contain four Microvision LRL systems, this will result in a volume of 364 million units in ten years. (9.1 million cars * 4 modules * 10 years) And this is a conservative calculation, both a higher market share, more cars produced, and more modules per car are conceivable. At least 4 LRL devices will be necessary to establish a \"circle of safety.\" Augmented Reality The Hololens 2 is an example of a Virtual Reality Device (VRD) manufactured by Microsoft that uses MicroVision MEMS Laser Scanning display modules inside. NASA & Lockeed Martin using Hololens (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently) 'When a technician puts on the Hololens, they instantly see the work instruction, instead of having to go through stacks of rectangular data, whether its paper or another form of a screen'...From 2002-2006, MVIS commercialized versions of a monochrome (red) VRD for industry and the military. It was called Nomad. Microvision also developed a full color version for the military, the Spectrum SD2500. The military alone currently intends to spend almost $3B on IVAS, augmented reality devices that use MicroVision tech, in the next several years. (Video at 1:12 - "based on Microsoft's Hololens" - amazing, must watch - "lets you see around corners.. see through smoke") (There is a money trail to confirm too: financial report) One of the many capabilities of the IVAS heasets. MicroVision revolutionizing the way people use GPS systems, to launch in July. (GPS industry will be 146.4 B by 2025) This new GPS system comes equipped with an augmented reality heads-up-display (HUD) that attaches directly to your sun visor. This laser-projected GPS micro-display, developed in collaboration with MicroVision, makes it appear that your route directions show directly on top of the road, letting you keep your eyes on the road at the same time.There's a reason that Apple CEO Tim Cook said a few weeks ago that Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing." Cook was asked about what he expects to be the biggest tech developments in the next five to 10 years. Cook’s response made it clear that he sees augmented reality as the future, calling it the “next big thing.”Imperial College Healthcare using Hololens 2 to fight the coronavirus. While attending a trauma call in the early stages of the pandemic, Mr Kinross noticed that 29 people were working in close proximity. He realized the established way of working would have to change dramatically.Mercedes-Benz using Microsoft HoloLens 2 for faster, safer vehicle service. Mercedes-Benz Virtual Remote Support The technician is then linked with a Mercedes-Benz specialist working remotely who can see what the tech sees and communicate in real-time -- manipulating the holographic information with annotations, highlighting areas of focus, pointing at things in the real world and presenting documents and service manuals.In the next few years, business verticals will be possible in the markets for smart glasses (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and projections with touchless input(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and gesture control. For example, an eyewear company could develop the smallest and lightest smart glasses device on the market using the chip in that smart glasses video. In the MicroVision Augmented Reality video, for example, we share a potential module design using our existing MEMS technology platform that could offer the lightest, smallest in volume, low power module with up to 40 degrees field of view packaged into eye wear that resembles frames currently accepted in the market. I believe one could see how our module in the design example would be compelling for a mass-market product. Source Patents MicroVision has 484 patents granted and pending. This was enough to get them on the Ocean Tomo 300 Patent Value Index. What is that you ask? The Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Value Index includes the top value companies of the broad- market Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Index, as determined by the price-to-book ratio, and is diversified across market capitalization. It is the industry’s first value index based on the value of intellectual property and represents a portfolio of 60 companies with the highest innovation ratio (i.e., patent maintenance value relative to book value). SourceThis index also outperforms the Russel 1000 and the S&P 500. Their intellectual property includes in-house developed custom MEMS, custom optics, proprietary digital and analog silicon chips, embedded real-time firmware and software, manufacturing processes, custom automation and strategic partnerships that allow them to operate in a sleek model. MicroVision patents and products therefore serve many future markets:
All Notable Competition: Velodyne LiDAR, Luminar, Sense Photonics, Robosense, Valeo, SureStar MicroVision: founded in 1993 Velodyne Lidar VLDR: founded in 1983, but as a subwoofer company 😂 and only got into LiDAR in 2005 LAZR: founded in 2012 Non-Public: Valeo: Founded in 1998 Robosense: Founded in 2014 SureStar: Founded in 2005 Basically, MVIS is all these other companies' daddy. They have been working on LiDAR for almost 30 years and it shows, just imagine what they will be able to develop in a few years with more funding. https://preview.redd.it/eh5csdcz9dh61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=068fe6f5508e693ace5c6c56d4d2a5d9294836fb Insider Activity MicroVision is very transparent with its inner workings of the company, you can easily reach out to them on their website under "Investors." One of many conferences held with Vice President David Westgor, investor relations manager Dave Allen, and investors of MVIS revealed: As to the employee incentive plan, Steve Holt made the point that in his 7 years of experience (I think it was) with MVIS, NO EMPLOYEE had actually ever cashed out in the money options.Case in point, on December 1s, 2020, the day after she joined the team, Judith Curran was paid with 3 million dollars worth of $3 calls expiring in 2022, and she has not cashed out. On Yahoo it reports that the last insider sale was in 2014. Institutional Investments For reasons stated earlier, institutions have been late to the game on this one, but now are starting to get on the rocket ship before it takes off. MVIS is now the largest holding in the S&P Kensho Moonshots Index, (KMOONP), which is literally an ETF of stocks that are going go the moon 🌙 . Blackrock purchased 2.44 million shares on December 31, 2020. Vanguard purchased 6.61 million shares on the same day. Recent Events MVIS's stagnation really started to break on December 1st 2020, with MVIS when former Ford Executive Judith Curran was added to MVIS's board of directors. Curran is an accomplished senior automotive executive with over 30 years of experience in vehicle program, engineering and technology leadership. Curran has a strong record of leading innovation at Ford Motor Company where she served in a number of executive positions including Director of Technology Strategy, where she developed the cross-vehicle global strategy for key new technologies including assisted driving, infotainment, new electrical architectures, and connectivity.Doesn't take a genius to figure out they were about to ride the EV wave, and were appointing the right people to be poised to do so. Eight days later on December 8th 2020, the US Congress approved approximately $700M for the roll-out of IVAS in 2021. 7 days after that on December 15th, MVIS broke $4 for the first time in nine years. December 29, 2020: MicroVision Announces $13 Million At-the-Market Equity Facility (this is huge for improving balance sheet and attracting hedge funds/institutional ownership) So far, our team remains on track to complete our Long Range Lidar sensor sample in April 2021. We believe this financing will further solidify our balance sheet as we remain committed to pursuing strategic alternatives and establishing value for our shareholders,” said Sumit Sharma, MicroVision Chief Executive Officer. “We expect a stronger balance sheet will provide the Company with runway through 2021 and into the first quarter of 2022 to enable us to continue development of our lidar sensor while pursuing strategic alternatives,” said Steve Holt, MicroVision Chief Financial Officer.December 31: Vanguard adds 6.6 million shares, Blackrock adds adds 2.4. January 20, 2021: Apple CEO Tim Cook says Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing." Feb 2, 2021 YooToob stock analyst Deadnsyde covers(YT links aren't allowed apparently) MVIS, causing the beginning of a large breakout past $8. Feb 4: MicroVision granted patent (WSB bot is blocking source from being posted- thinks it contains a ticker), essentially lidar on a chip, this patent in particular is huge. (solid state lidar) Feb 10: Cramer mentions MVIS, says LIDAR is one of three battlegrounds for EV competition. Feb 10 after hours: MVIS announces Progress on Automotive Long Range LiDAR, saying “We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision. Feb 11: Volkswagen and Microsoft team up on automated driving (potential for MVIS to get involved). Talent at MicroVision Sumit Sharma became the CEO in February of 2020, he is a mechanical engineer that has been with MVIS for five years after having been the head of operations at Google Project Glass, and working for Motorola and Jawbone. Dr. Mark Spitzer is on the board of directors having previously worked at Google X, Darpa, Kopin and having founded Myvu and Photonic Glass. Judy Curran joined the board this year after spending 30 years at Ford, where she was the Director of Technical Strategy. She is also the Head of Global Automotive Strategy for Ansys, a simulation software company that works with ADAS systems. Technical analysis Resistance at 46.75, 123. 39, and 204. 23, could turn to supports. Moving Average Analysis: On February 28, 2020, Market Cap of PLUG was 1.32B, on this date the 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 11 months later, PLUG has a market cap of 33.79B, an increase of 2459%. On September 3, 2020, Market Cap of MVIS was 0.21B, on this date 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 5 months later, MVIS has a market cap of 2.77B an increase of 1219%. 6 months forward price target: $34.348B Conclusion/Valuation/TLDR LAZR is currently valued at 12.22B VLDR at 3.92B MVIS at 2.77B MicroVision offers a quantitatively much higher performance product than both of its competitor companies. Because of their lack of focus on augmented reality technologies, competitors are not likely to have a future in the markets of smart glasses, healthcare, engineering, military equipment, GPS safety, entertainment, and interactive projectors. They are involved in an industry that is currently at an inflection point, due to grow massively in the near future. Their high number of extremely advanced patents will bring in significant revenue for the company in the coming years. I have never seen a company with such low insider selling, that the last case of a sale was in 2014. Institutional investors are piling in as MicroVision's balance sheet improves and they near the April LRL sensor test date, which has a high likelihood of being a success. I think this stock should currently be valued at 20 Billion dollars, taking all of this into account, and expect it to rise drastically over the next few years. This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor, do your own research before believing some retard on the internet. Positions: 300 shares, $19 call 5/21, $20 call 3/19, $31 call 2/19(FD), $28 call 2/19, $24 call 2/19. |
The American company is most famous for its software such as Microsoft Windows, Microsoft Office Suite, Internet Explorer, Edge Web Browsers and has hardware products too such as the famous Xbox video game console and the Microsoft Surface tablet. It is the world’s biggest software maker and is one the world’s most valuable companies. Its current CEO is Satya Nadella and its market capital is $509 billion. World’s 100 Largest Companies by Revenue in 2019 . Visualizing the Top companies making the most money. Faisal Khan. Aug 21, 2019 · 3 min read. C ompanies across the globe have been reaping the ... A division of electronics and entertainment conglomerate Sony, SCE began in 1993 when Sony announced the production of the Playstation game console. Since then, SCE has become the largest video game company in the world based on annual revenue. SCE oversees the production of the hardware and peripherals for Playstation games. And Tencent doesn’t make its money by selling the League of Legends game itself, they’ve earned their $197.4 billion net worth with lots and lots of micro transactions in this highly popular game. Nintendo is a Japanese video game developer and consumer company who has their headquarters in Kyoto, Japan. They are famously known for creating the best handheld gaming devices and changing the industry. They are the creators of world-renowned games like Mario, Pokémon and Legend of Zelda. They created many gaming consoles along the years like Nintendo Entertainment System, Nintendo 64, Game Cube and Nintendo Wii. Wii was the first home gaming console which came with motion capture ... This Top Video Game Companies ranking is based on analysis of annual and quarterly financial reports published by a number of relevant publicly listed game companies. For companies that do not split out their game revenues, the analysis includes estimates, which may or may not be indicated explicitly. Revenues (GAAP) are restated to reflect Calendar Years, therefore do not necessarily match ... The 25 Biggest Open-World Video Games, Ranked By Size. As video game consoles continue to grow in power and size, so do the worlds that live inside these games. By Thomas Delatte Apr 01, 2019. Share Share Tweet Email. 0. Comment. Since the original Nintendo Entertainment System launched in the United States in 1985, video games have been growing at a rapid pace. It seemed as if there was a new ... Top 10 richest video game developers in the world in 2019. 10. Square Enix. Value: $1.26 billion. Headquartered in Tokyo, this company is known not only for videogame production but also for anime comics (manga), books, and motion pictures. The company’s founder, Yasuhiro Fukushima, is the largest shareholder. King Digital Entertainment, the makers of ‘Candy Crush,’ is a world-leading interactive entertainment company specializing in mobile gaming. The company’s Candy Crush franchise has surpassed 2.75 billion downloads since the first game in the series launched on mobile five years ago. Nintendo was founded by Fusajiro Yamauchi in September 1889. It is headquartered in Kyoto, Japan but has subsidiaries and offices in several other parts of the world. Nintendo is the world’s largest video game company by revenue, with a net value of over USD85 Billion. Some of the notable video game by this company are:
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